Latest census figures put
our [Staten Island's] number at 457,383 but whether we can support
continued increases is another story
Staten Island continues to grow at an impressive clip, according to
new population estimates released today by the Census Bureau.
The numbers raise more questions about the Island's
infrastructure -- including roads, schools, housing, power plants
and transportation -- in the coming decades.
After proving to be the fastest-growing county in
the state from 1990 to 2000, when it experienced a whopping 17
percent growth, Staten Island came in at number four out of New
York's 62 counties for the period from July 1, 2000, to July 1,
2002.
In that time, it absorbed an estimated 11,886 more
people, a growth rate of 2.7 percent, for a total of 457,383.
The borough took its place in rate of growth behind
three less-populated counties: Seneca, Orange and Saratoga.
Seneca was first, with 4.81 percent growth, followed
by Orange, with 4 percent, and Saratoga with 2.82 percent.
However, Staten Island's population is the highest
of the top four fastest-growing counties, which means it gained more
people than each of the other three.
The new estimates are based on administrative data
and estimates for births, deaths and net migration.
Staten Island's population has been mounting
steadily since the Verrazano-Narrows Bridge opened in 1964. Since
1990, it has absorbed roughly 6,000 people annually, or 1 percent, a
high number in terms of population growth.
While Staten Island's population keeps rising at a
brisk pace, the rest of New York City sustains its long-held slow
growth. For the new two-year estimates, the Bronx was the 10th
fastest-growing county, with 1.5 percent growth; Brooklyn was number
17 at .83 percent; Manhattan held 30th place, having grown by .49
percent; and Queens came in at number 38, after growing by .27
percent.
"If we continue at this pace, Staten Island will
break 500,000 residents by about 2011," said Dr. Jonathan Peters,
assistant professor of finance specializing in transportation at the
College of Staten Island.
"The big question that I have is, 'Can we continue
to keep this county functioning in terms of transportation and
infrastructure for the next 20 years?'"
Staten Island is the least dense borough in New York
City and still has plenty of space for growth.
Peters noted that if the borough grew to just half
the density of Queens, which has 20,530 persons per square mile,
then the 58 square miles of Staten Island would have a population of
595,370, which means another 137,987 people still on the way. If
Staten Island reached the same density as Queens, its population
would be 1.2 million.
Dr. Warren Brown, director of Cornell University's
New York Statistical Information System, projected each New York
county's population 30 years into the future, based on current rates
of growth and assuming factors like land use stay the same.
For most of the counties, he found that by the year
2025, deaths will exceed births and populations will begin to
decrease.
But Staten Island was one of the exceptions.
The borough continues to show a rise for as far as
the projection was calculated.
By 2030, the county would have 630,683 people if
current rates continue, said Brown.
That's more than a 42 percent increase.
